How Could The Midterm Elections Impact The Stock Market?

The most common question that I have been asked over the past few weeks is: “If the Republicans lose control of either the House or the Senate in November, what impact do you think that will have on the markets?” How much the stock market may go up or down in the days leading up to or directly after the midterm elections, regardless of the result, is

The most common question that I have been asked over the past few weeks is: “If the Republicans lose control of either the House or the Senate in November, what impact do you think that will have on the markets?”   How much the stock market may go up or down in the days leading up to or directly after the midterm elections, regardless of the result, is anyone’s guess.  But if we use history as a guide, investors will probably realize that this situation is not uncommon, and there is probably less to worry about than investors think. 

A Shift In Power Is Not Uncommon

If we look back at every midterm election going back to 1934, on average, the president’s party has lost 30 seats in the House and 4 seats in the Senate during a midterm election year.  There are only three years in history that the president’s party actually gained seats due to a midterm election:  1934, 1998, and 2002.  So if the Republican’s lose seats in Congress in November that would really be the norm instead of the exception to the rule.  If it is in fact the norm, investors have to ask themselves, “how much of that shift in power is already priced into the market?” 

How Does The Stock Market React During Midterm Election Years?

In attempting to answer this question there are two components: volatility and return.  As many would guess, during midterm election years volatility typically rises leading up to the elections. Looking at the S&P 500 Index going all the way back to 1970, the volatility levels in the stock market are typically 10%+ more volatile when compared to the levels of volatility in the S&P 500 when there are no midterm elections.

From a return standpoint, the results speak for themselves.    Below is a bar chart that shows the return of the S&P 500 Index 12 months following the midterm elections 1950 – 2015:

stock market returns

stock market returns

12 months after a midterm elections the S&P 500 Index averages a 15.1% annual return.  In all other years the stock market averages a 6.8% annual return.

But What About A Flip In Control

It’s one things to lose seats in Congress but do we have to worry more because it’s not just about losing seats this year, it’s about a shift in power within Congress?  Again, using history as a guide, let’s look at what has happened in the past.  The House majority switched parties as a result of midterm elections in 1994, 2006, and 2010.  In all three of those years where a shift in power was in the cards, the stock market was either down or flat leading up the midterm elections in November.   However, in all three of those years the stock market was significantly higher 12 months after the midterm elections. See the chart below: 

past returns of S&P 500 Index

past returns of S&P 500 Index

The Stock Market Cares More About The Economy

If you asked me which environment I would choose to invest in:

A)  Stable political environment and bad economy

B)  Unstable political environment and good economy

I would probably choose “B” because at the end of the day the stock market is historically driven by the economy.    While politics have the power to influence the economy, if we end up in a gridlock situation after the November elections, that is also the norm.  Going back to 1948, we have had a “divided government” 61% of the time.  As we get closer to the elections, there is a very good chance that the level of volatility in the markets will increase because the stock market doesn’t like uncertainty.  But if we use history as our guide, the 12 months following the midterm elections may reward investors that stay the course.

Michael Ruger

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

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After A Divorce, Who Gets To File As Head of Household For Their Taxes?

There are often issues with money and taxes when a couple separates, or even when an ex-divorcee gets married again but this is one of most common tax questions that we receive when a married couple with children are in the process of getting divorced.

There are often issues with money and taxes when a couple separates, or even when an ex-divorcee gets married again but this is one of most common tax questions that we receive when a married couple with children are in the process of getting divorced.

With regards to divorces and taxes though, there are five different tax filing types:

Single

Married Filing Joint

Married Filing Separately

Head of Household

Qualifying widow(er) with dependent child

There are a number of advantages for the spouse that is able to use the Head of Household (“HOH”) filing status after the divorce is finalized. They include:

  • Lower tax brackets

  • A higher standard deduction

  • The possibility of qualifying for more tax credits and deductions

Joint Custody

When parents are awarded joint custody, you would think that there is some flexibility as to who is allowed to file as HOH or at a minimum that the spouses can alternate who files as HOH each year. In a divorce, even with a joint custody arrangement, there is typically one custodial parent. The custodial parent is the parent that the children spend the greatest number of days during the year.In simple terms, it literally comes down to counting the number of days during the calendar year that the children spends with each parent. The parent that spends the most days with the children during the year is the custodial parent and has the right to file as Head of Household, to claim the children as a dependent, claim the child tax credits, and the dependent child care credit.

Form 8332

At any time after the divorce, the custodial parent has the ability to file Form 8332 with their tax return which allows the noncustodial parent to claim one or any number of the children as a dependent on their own tax return. However, even if the custodial party files Form 8332 with their return allowing their ex-spouse to claim one or more of the children as dependents for that tax year, they still retain the right to file under the Head of Household filing status. The Head of Household filing status cannot be transferred to the noncustodial parent via Form 8332.

Both Parents Claim HOH

There are a few rare cases where it could be possible for both parents to file as Head of Household in the same tax year. For example, if there are two children, one child spends 51% of the year with one parent, and the second child spends 51% of the year with the other parent, both parents may be able to file as Head of Household in the same tax year. If you feel like you and your ex-spouse qualify for this exception, you will need to keep very careful records of where the children spend their days and nights throughout the year.

You should keep a “child custody log” because there is a good chance that both parents filing as HOH post-divorce will trigger an audit by the IRS. But there is nothing guaranteeing that a child custody log by itself will satisfy the IRS in the event of an audit. The IRS could request additional information to determine that the 51% time requirement was met by each parent.

Michael Ruger

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

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Patience Should Reward Investors In 2018

Bottom line, the first half of 2018 was a tough pill to swallow for investors. They had to fight a constant rollercoaster. Volatility was high, returns were low, and the news was dominated with fears of trade wars. This environment has left investors questioning if we are on the eve of the next recession. Well I have good news. While trade wars have driven

Bottom line, the first half of 2018 was a tough pill to swallow for investors.  They had to fight a constant rollercoaster. Volatility was high, returns were low, and the news was dominated with fears of trade wars. This environment has left investors questioning if we are on the eve of the next recession. Well I have good news. While trade wars have driven fear into the hearts of investors, during that same time period corporate earnings have been soaring and the U.S. economy has continued its growth path. For these reasons, disciplined investors may have good things waiting for them in the second half of 2018.

Coming Off A Big Year

As of the end of the second quarter, the S&P 500 Index was up 2.6% year to date. So why does 2018 seem like such a disappointment? You have to remember that 2017 was a huge year with the added benefit of very little volatility. It was a straight march up the entire year.

First, let’s compare the performance of the various asset classes in the first half of 2017 versus to first half of 2018. Below are the returns for the various assets classes in the first half of 2017:

Here are those same asset classes in the first half of 2018.

Obviously a huge difference. At this time last year, the S&P 500 Index was already up 9.3% for the year compared to 2.6% in 2018. International and emerging market equities were up over 14% in the first half of 2017. In 2018, those same international stocks were down over 2%. One might guess that bonds would preform better in a year with muted stock returns. Well, one would be wrong because the Barclay’s US Aggregate Bond Index was down 1.6% in the first 6 months of 2018.

Volatility Is Back

Not only has the first half of 2018 been a return drought but the level of volatility in the stock market has also spiked. In the first 6 months of 2017, the S&P 500 Index only had 2 trading days where the stock market moved plus or minus by more than 1% in a day. Guess how many trading days there were in the first half of 2018 where the S&P 500 Index moved up or down by more than 1% in a day.

The answer: 25 Days

That’s a 1,250% increase over 2017. No wonder everyone’s nerves are rattled. So the up 2% YTD in the stock market feels more like a down 10% because a lot has happened in a short period of time. Plus, the only big positive month for the stock market was in January which feels like forever ago.

Recency Bias

Investors are largely suffering for what we call in the investment industry as “recency bias”. In other words, what happened recently has now become the rule in the minds of investors. Investors are largely using 2017 as their measuring stick for 2018 performance and volatility. While it would seem that the dramatic increase in the level of volatility this year would classify 2018 as an abnormally volatile year, it’s actually 2017 that was the anomaly. Below is a chart that shows the annual return of the S&P 500 Index since 1980. The dots below each annual return are the market corrections that took place as some point during each calendar year.

Based on historical data, it’s “normal” for the market to experience on average a 10% correction at some point during the year. Now look at 2017, the stock market was up 19% for the year but the largest correction during the year was 3%. That’s abnormal. By comparison, even though we are only half way through 2018, we have already experienced a 10% correction and as of June 30th, the S&P 500 Index is up 2% for the year.

Earnings Are King

Behind the dark clouds of the media headlines and the increased level of volatility this year is the dramatic increase in corporate earnings. Corporate earnings have not only increased but they have leaped forward. Take a look at the chart below:

The market traditionally follows earnings. The earnings per share for the S&P 500 Index in 2017 was 17% which is a strong number historically. In the first quarterly of 2018, the year-over-year earnings per share growth was up 27%. That is a surge in corporate earnings. But you would have no idea looking at the meager 2% YTD return from the stock market this year. Pair that with the fact that the P/E of the S&P 500 is around 16 which is in line with its 20 year historic average. See the chart below:

Even though it has been a long expansion, the market is not “over priced” by historic terms. If the stock market is fairly valued and corporate earnings are accelerating, one could make the case that the stock market has some catching up to do in the second half of the year.

The Chances Of A Recession Are Low

With the yield curve still positively sloped and the Composite Index of Leading Indicator, not only positive, but accelerating, a recession within the next 6 to 12 months seems unlikely. It’s like wandering through a jungle. When you are on the ground, the jungle is intimidating, there are plenty of things to be afraid of, and it’s tough to know which direction you should be walking. As investment advisors it’s our job to climb the tallest tree to get above the jungle to determine which way we should be walking.

In summary, 2018 has been an emotional roller coaster for investors. But making sound investment decision is about putting your emotions and gut feelings aside and looking at the hard economic data when making investment decisions. That data is telling us that we may very well be witnessing the soon to be longest economic expansion since 1900. The U.S. economy is strong, tax reform is boosting corporate earnings, interest rates are rising but are still at benign levels, and consumer sentiment is booming. In the later stages of an economic cycle, higher levels of volatility will be here to stay which will test the patience of investors. But overall the second half of the year could prove to be beneficial for investors that choose to climb the trees.

Michael Ruger

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

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We Are Sleep Walking Into The Next Crisis

The U.S. economy is headed down a dangerous path. In our opinion it has nothing to do with the length of the current economic cycle, valuations, interest rates, or trade wars. Instead, it has everything to do with our mounting government deficits. We have been talking about the federal budget deficits for the past ten years but when does that

The U.S. economy is headed down a dangerous path. In our opinion it has nothing to do with the length of the current economic cycle, valuations, interest rates, or trade wars. Instead, it has everything to do with our mounting government deficits. We have been talking about the federal budget deficits for the past ten years but when does that problem really come home to roost?

A Crisis In Plain Sight

An economic crisis is often easier to spot than you think if you are looking in the right places. Most of the time it involves identifying a wide spread trend that has evolved in the financial markets and the economy, shutting out all of the noise, and then applying some common sense. Looking at the tech bubble, people were taking home equity loans to buy tech stocks that they themselves did not understand. During the housing bubble people that were making $40,000 per year were buying homes for $500,000 and banks were giving loans with no verification of income. Both of the last two recessions you could have spotted by paying attention to the trends and applying some common sense.

Government Debt

Looking at the data, we think there is a good chance that the next economic crisis may stem from reaching unsustainable levels of government debt. Up until now we have just been talking about it but my goal with this article is to put where we are now in perspective and why this "talking point" may soon become a reality.

Debt vs GDP

The primary measuring stick that we use to measure the sustainability of the U.S. debt level is the Debt vs GDP ratio. This ratio compares the total debt of the U.S. versus how much the U.S. economy produces in one year. Think of it as an individual. If I told you that someone has $100,000 in credit card debt, your initial reaction may be “wow, that’s a lot of debt”. But then what if I told you that an individual makes $1,000,000 per year in income? That level of debt is probably sustainable for that person since it’s only 10% of their gross earnings, whereas that amount of credit card debt would render someone who makes $50,000 per year bankrupt.

Our total gross federal deficit just eclipsed $21 trillion dollars. That’s Trillion with a “T”. From January through March 2018, GDP in the U.S. was running at an annual rate of $19.965 trillion dollars (Source: The Balance). Based on the 2018 Q1 data our debt vs GDP ratio is approximately 105%. That’s big number.

The Safe Zone

Before I start throwing more percentages at you let's first establish a baseline for what's sustainable and not sustainable from a debt standpoint. Two Harvard professors, Reinhart and Rogoff, conducted a massive study on this exact topic and wrote a whitepaper titled "Growth in a Time of Debt". Their study aimed to answer the question "how much debt is too much for a government to sustain?" They looked at historic data, not just for the U.S. but also for other countries around the world, to determine the correlation between various levels of Debt vs GDP and the corresponding growth or contraction rate of that economy. What they found was that in many cases, once a government's Debt vs GDP ratio exceeded 90%, it was frequently followed by a period of either muted growth or economic contraction. It makes sense. Even though the economy may still be growing, if you are paying more in interest on your debt then you are making, it puts you in a bad place.

Only One Time In History

There has only been one other time in U.S. history that the Debt vs GDP ratio has been as high as it is now and that was during World War II. Back in 1946, the Debt vs GDP ratio hit 119%. The difference between now and then is we are not currently funding a world war. I make that point because wars end and when they end the spending drops off dramatically. Between 1946 and 1952, the Debt vs GDP ratio dropped from 119% to 72%. Our Debt vs GDP ratio bottomed in 1981 at 31%. Since then it has been a straight march up to the levels that were are at now. We are not currently financing a world war and there is not a single expenditure that we can point to that will all of a sudden drop off to help us reduce our debt level.

Spending Too Much

So what is the United States spending the money on? Below is a snapshot of the 2018 federal budget which answers that question. As illustrated by the spending bar on the left, we are estimated to spend $4.1 trillion dollars in 2018. The largest pieces coming from Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

federal deficit

federal deficit

The bar on the right illustrates how the U.S. intends to pay for that $4.1 trillion in spending. At the top of that bar you will see “Borrowing $804 Bn”. That means the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the U.S. will have to borrow an additional $804 billion dollars just to meet the planned spending for 2018. With the introduction of tax reform and the infrastructure spending, the annual spending amount is expected to increase over the next ten years.

Whether you are for or against tax reform, it’s difficult to make the argument that it’s going to “pay for itself in the form of more tax as a result of greater economic growth.” Just run the numbers. If our annual GDP is $19.9 Trillion per year, our 3% GDP growth rate I already factored into the budget numbers, to bridge the $804B shortfall, our GDP growth rate would have to be around 7% per year to prevent further additions to the total government debt. Good luck with that. A 7% GDP growth rate is a generous rate at the beginning of an economic expansion. Given that we are currently in the second longest economic expansion of all time, it’s difficult to make the argument that we are going to see GDP growth rates that are typically associated with the beginning of an expansion period.

Apply Common Sense

Here’s where we apply common sense to the debt situation. Excluding the financing of a world war, the United State is currently at a level of debt that has never been obtained in history. Like running a business, there are only two ways to dig yourself out of debt. Cut spending or increase revenue. While tax reform may increase revenue in the form of economic growth, it does not seem likely that the U.S. economy is at this stage in the economic cycle and be able to obtain the GDP growth rate needed to prevent a further increase in the government deficits.

A cut in spending, in its simplest form, means that something has to be taken away. No one wants to hear that. The Republican and Democratic parties seem so deeply entrenched in their own camps that it will make it difficult, if not impossible, for any type of spending reform to take place before we are on the eve of what would seem to be a collision course with the debt wall. Over the past two decades, the easy solution has been to “just borrow more” which makes the landing even harder when we get there.

Answering the “when” question is probably the most difficult. We are clearly beyond what history has revered as the “comfort zone” when to comes to our Debt vs GDP ratio. However, the combination of the economic boost from tax reform and infrastructure spending in the U.S., the accelerating economic expansion that is happening outside of the U.S., and the low global interest rate environment, could continue to support growth rates even at these elevated levels of government debt.

Debt is tricky. There are times when it can be smart accept the debt, and times where it isn’t helpful. As we know from the not too distant past, it has the ability to sustain growth for an unnaturally long period of time but when the music stops it gets ugly very quickly. I’m not yelling that the sky is falling and everyone needs to go to cash tomorrow. But now is a good time to evaluate where you are risk wise within your portfolio and begin having the discussion with your investment advisor as to what an exit plan may look like if the U.S. debt levels become unsustainable and it triggers a recession within the next five years.

Michael Ruger

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

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Don't Let Taxes Dictate Your Investment Decisions

Everyone hates to pay more in taxes. But this is something that has to be done. Sometimes taxes can often lead investors to make foolish investment decisions. The stock market bottomed in March 2009 and since then we have experienced the second-longest bull market rally of all time. This type of market environment typically creates a

Everyone hates to pay more in taxes. But this is something that has to be done. Sometimes taxes can often lead investors to make foolish investment decisions. The stock market bottomed in March 2009 and since then we have experienced the second-longest bull market rally of all time. This type of market environment typically creates a stockpile of unrealized gains in the equity portion of your portfolio. When you go to sell one of your investment holdings that has appreciated in value over the past few years there may be a big tax bill waiting for you. But when is it the right time to ignore the tax hit and execute the trade?

Do The Math

What sounds worse? Writing a check to the government for $10,000 in taxes or experiencing a 3% loss in your investment accounts? Most people would answer paying taxes. After all, who wants to write a check to the government for $10,000 after you have already paid your fair share of taxes throughout the year. It’s this exact situation that gets investors in a lot of trouble when the stock market turns or when that concentrated stock position takes a nosedive.

Before making this decision make sure you do the math. If you have $500,000 in your taxable investment account and the account value drops by 3%, your account just lost $15,000. It would have been better to sell the holding, pay the $10,000 in taxes, and you would still be ahead by $5,000. Before making the decision not to sell for tax reasons, make sure you run this calculation.

Gains Are Good

While most of us run from paying taxes like the plague, remember gains are good. It means that you made money on the investment.  At some point you are going to have to pay tax on that gain unless your purposefully waiting for the investment to lose value or if you plan to die with that holding in your estate.

If you put $100,000 in an aggressive investment a year ago and it’s now worth $200,000, if you sell it all today, you will have to pay long term cap gains tax and possibly state tax on the $100,000 realized gain. But remember, what goes up by 100% can also go down by 100%. To avoid the tax bill, you make the decision to just sit on the investment and 3 months from now the economy goes into a recession. The value of that investment drops to $125,000 and you sell it before things get worse. While you successfully decreased your tax liability, the tax hit would have been a lot better than saying goodbye to $75,000.

As financial planners we are always looking for ways to reduce the tax bill for our clients but sometimes paying taxes is unavoidable. The more you make, the more you pay in taxes. In most tax years, investors try to use investment losses to help offset some of the realized taxable gains. However, since most assets classes have appreciated in value over the last few years, investors may be challenges to find investment losses in their accounts.

Capital Gains Tax

A quick recap of capital gains tax rates. There are long-term and short-term capital gains. They apply to investments that are held in non-retirement account. IRA’s, 401(k), and 403(b) plans are all tax deferred vehicles so you do not have worry about realizing capital gains tax when you sell a holding within those types of accounts.

In a taxable brokerage account, if you buy an investment and sell it in less than 12 months, if it made money, you realize a short-term capital gain. Short-term gains do not receive preferential tax treatment. You pay tax at the ordinary income tax rates.

However, if you buy an investment and hold it for more than a year before selling it, the gain is taxed at the preferential long-term capital gain rates. At the federal level, there are three flat rates: 0%, 15%, and 20%. At the state level, it varies based on what state you live in. If you live in New York, where we are headquartered, long-term capital gains do not have preferential tax treatment for state income tax purposes. They are taxed as ordinary income. While other states like Alaska, Florida, and Texas assess no taxes at the state level on capital gains.

The tax rate that you pay on your long-term capital gains at the federal level depends on your AGI for that particular tax year. Here are the thresholds for 2021:

long term cap gains rates

long term cap gains rates

A special note for investors that fall in the 20% category, in addition to being taxed at the higher rate, there is also a 3.8% Medicare surtax that is tacked onto the 20% rate. So the top long-term capital gains rate for high income earners is really 23.8%, not 20%.

Don't Forget About The Flat Rate

Investors forget that long-term capital gains are taxed for the most part at a flat rate. If your AGI is $200,000 and you are considering selling an investment that would cause you to incur a $100,000 long-term capital gain, it may not matter from a tax standpoint whether you sell it all this year or if you split the gain between two different tax years. You are still taxed at that flat 15% federal tax rate on the full amount of the gain regardless of when you sell it.There are of course exceptions to this rule. Here is a list of some of the exceptions that you need to aware of:

  • Your AGI limit for the year

  • The impact of the long-term capital gain on your AGI

  • College financial aid

  • Social security taxation

  • Health insurance through the exchange

First exception is the one-time income event that pushes your income dramatically higher for the year. This could be a big bonus, a good year for the company that you own, or you sell an investment property. In these cases you have to mindful of the federal capital gains tax thresholds. If it’s toward the end of the year and you are thinking about selling an investment that has a good size unrealized gain built up into it, it may be prudent to sell enough to keep yourself out of the top long-term capital gains bracket and then sell the rest in January when you enter the new tax year. That move could save you 8.8% in taxes on the realized gains. The 23.8% to tax rate minus the 15% median rate. If you are at the beginning or in the middle of a tax year trying to make this decision, the decision is more difficult. You will have to weigh the risk of the investment losing value before you flip into a new tax year versus paying a slightly higher tax rate on the gain.

To piggyback on the first exception, you have to remember that long term capital gains increase your AGI. If you make $300,000 and you realize a $200,000 long term capital gain on an investment, it’s going to bump you up into the highest federal long term capital gains tax rate.

College financial aid can be a big exception. If you have a child in college or a child that will be going to college within the next two years, and you expect to receive some type of financial aid based on income, be very careful about when you realize capital gains in your investment portfolio. The parent’s investment income can count against a student’s financial aid package. Also, FASFA looks back two years for purposes of determining your financial aid package so conducing this tax versus risk analysis requires some advanced planning.

For those receiving social security benefit, capital gains can impact how much of your social security benefit is subject to taxation.

For individuals that receive their health insurance through a state exchange platform (Obamacare) and qualify for income subsidies, the capital gains income could decrease the amount of the subsidy that you are receive for that year. Be careful.

Don't Make The This Mistake

Bottom line, nothing is ever simple. I wish I could say that in all instances you should completely ignore the tax ramifications and make the right investment decision. In the real world, it’s about determining the balance between the two. It’s about doing the math to better under the tax hit versus the downside risk of continuing to hold a security to avoid paying taxes.

While the current economic expansion may still have further to go, we are probably closer to the end than we are the beginning of the current economic expansion. When the expansion ends, investors are going to be tempted to hold onto certain investments within their portfolio longer than they should because they don’t want to take the tax hit. Don’t make this mistake. If you have a stock holding within your portfolio and it drops significantly in value, you may not have the time horizon needed to wait for that investment to bounce back. Or you may have the opportunity to preserve principal during the next market downturn and buy back that same investment at lower level.

In general, it’s good time for investors to revisit their investment portfolios from a risk standpoint. You may be faced with some difficult investment decisions within the next few years. Remember, selling an investment that has lost money is ten times easier than selling one of your “big winners”. Do the math, don’t get emotionally attached to any particular investment, and be prepared to make investment changes to your investment portfolios as we enter the later stages of this economic cycle.

Michael Ruger

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

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Can I Open A Roth IRA For My Child?

Parents always want their children to succeed financially so they do everything they can to set them up for a good future. One of the options for parents is to set up a Roth IRA and we have a lot of parents that ask us if they are allowed to establish one on behalf of their son or daughter. You can, as long as they have earned income. This can be a

Parents will often ask us: “What type of account can I setup for my kids that will help them to get a head start financially in life"?”.  One of the most powerful wealth building tools that you can setup for your children is a Roth IRA because all of accumulation between now and when they withdrawal it in retirement will be all tax free. If your child has $10,000 in their Roth IRA today, assuming they never make another deposit to the account, and it earns 8% per year, 40 years from now the account balance would be $217,000.

Contribution Limits

The maximum contribution that an individual under that age of 50 can make to a Roth IRA in 2022 is the LESSER of:

  • $6,000

  • 100% of earned income

For most children between the age of 15 and 21, their Roth IRA contributions tend to be capped by the amount of their earned income. The most common sources of earned income for young adults within this age range are:

  • Part-time employment

  • Summer jobs

  • Paid internships

  • Wages from parent owned company

If they add up all of their W-2's at the end of the year and they total $3,000, the maximum contribution that you can make to their Roth IRA for that tax year is $3,000.

Roth IRA's for Minors

If you child is under the age of 18, you can still establish a Roth IRA for them. However, it will be considered a "custodial IRA". Since minors cannot enter into contracts, you as the parent serve as the custodian to their account. You will need to sign all of the forms to setup the account and select the investment allocation for the IRA. It's important to understand that even though you are listed as a custodian on the account, all contributions made to the account belong 100% to the child. Once the child turns age 18, they have full control over the account.

Age 18+

If the child is age 18 or older, they will be required to sign the forms to setup the Roth IRA and it's usually a good opportunity to introduce them to the investing world. We encourage our clients to bring their children to the meeting to establish the account so they can learn about investing, stocks, bonds, the benefits of compounded interest, and the stock market in general. It's a great learning experience.

Contribution Deadline & Tax Filing

The deadline to make a Roth IRA contribution is April 15th following the end of the calendar year. We often get the question: "Does my child need to file a tax return to make a Roth IRA contribution?" The answer is "no". If their taxable income is below the threshold that would otherwise require them to file a tax return, they are not required to file a tax return just because a Roth IRA was funded in their name.

Distribution Options

While many of parents establish Roth IRA’s for their children to give them a head start on saving for retirement, these accounts can be used to support other financial goals as well. Roth contributions are made with after tax dollars. The main benefit of having a Roth IRA is if withdrawals are made after the account has been established for 5 years and the IRA owner has obtained age 59½, there is no tax paid on the investment earnings distributed from the account.

If you distribute the investment earnings from a Roth IRA before reaching age 59½, the account owner has to pay income tax and a 10% early withdrawal penalty on the amount distributed. However, income taxes and penalties only apply to the “earnings” portion of the account. The contributions, since they were made with after tax dollar, can be withdrawal from the Roth IRA at any time without having to pay income taxes or penalties.

Example: I deposit $5,000 to my daughters Roth IRA and four years from now the account balance is $9,000. My daughter wants to buy a house but is having trouble coming up with the money for the down payment. She can withdrawal $5,000 out of her Roth IRA without having to pay taxes or penalties since that amount represents the after tax contributions that were made to the account. The $4,000 that represents the earnings portion of the account can remain in the account and continue to accumulate tax-free. Not only did I provide my daughter with a head start on her retirement savings but I was also able to help her with the purchase of her first house.

We have seen clients use this flexible withdrawal strategy to help their children pay for their wedding, pay for college, pay off student loans, and to purchase their first house.

Not Limited To Just Your Children

This wealth accumulate strategy is not limited to just your children. We have had grandparents fund Roth IRA's for their grandchildren and aunts fund Roth IRA's for their nephews. They do not have to be listed as a dependent on your tax return to establish a custodial IRA. If you are funded a Roth IRA for a minor or a college student that is not your child, you may have to obtain the total amount of wages on their W-2 form from their parents or the student because the contribution could be capped based on what they made for the year.

Business Owners

Sometime we see business owners put their kids on payroll for the sole purpose of providing them with enough income to make the $6,000 contribution to their Roth IRA. Also, the child is usually in a lower tax bracket than their parents, so the wages earned by the child are typically taxed at a lower tax rate. A special note with this strategy, you have to be able to justify the wages being paid to your kids if the IRS or DOL comes knocking at your door.

Michael Ruger

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

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Should I Rollover My Pension To An IRA?

Whether you are about to retire or if you were just notified that your company is terminating their pension plan, making the right decision with regard to your pension plan payout is extremely important. It's important to get this decision right because you only get one shot at it. There are a lot of variables that factor into choosing the right option.

Whether you are about to retire or if you were just notified that your company is terminating their pension plan, making the right decision with regard to your pension plan payout is extremely important. It's important to get this decision right because you only get one shot at it. There are a lot of variables that factor into choosing the right option. While selecting the monthly payment option may be the right choice for your fellow co-worker, it could be the wrong choice for you. Here is a quick list of the items that you should consider before making the decision.

  • Financial health of the plan sponsor

  • Your age

  • Your health

  • Flexibility

  • Monthly benefit vs lump sum amount

  • Inflation

  • Your overall retirement picture

Financial Health Of The Plan Sponsor

The plan sponsor is the company, organization, union, municipality, state agency, or government entity that is in charge of the pension plan. The financial health of the plan sponsor should weigh heavily on your decision in many cases. After all what good is a monthly pension payment if five years from now the company or entity that sponsors the plan goes bankrupt?

Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation

But wait……..isn’t there some type of organization that guarantees the pension payments? The answer, there may or may not be. The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC) is an organization that was established to protect your pension benefit. But PBGC protection only applies if your company participates in the PBGC. Not all pension plans have this protection.

Large companies will typically have PBGC protection. The pension plan is required to pay premiums to the PBGC each year. Those premiums are used to subsidize the cost of bankrupt pension plans if the PBGC has to step in to pay benefits. But it’s very important to understand that even through a pension plan may have PBGC protection that does not mean that 100% of the employee’s pension benefits are protected if the company goes bankrupt.

There is a dollar limited placed on the monthly pension benefit that the PBGC will pay if it has to step in. It’s a sliding scale based on your age and the type of pension benefit that you elected. If your pension payment is greater that the cap, the excess amount is not insured. Here is the PBGC 2021 Maximum Monthly Guarantee Table:

Another important note, if you have not reached age 65, your full pension benefit may not be insured even if it is less than the cap listed in the table.

Again, not all pension plans are afforded this protection by the PBGC. Pension plans offered by states and local government agencies typically do not have PBGC protection.

If you are worried about the financial health of the plan sponsor, that scenario may favor electing the lump sum payment option and then rolling over the funds into your rollover IRA. Once the money is in your IRA, the plan sponsor insolvency risk is eliminated.

Your Age

Your age definitely factors into the decision. If you have 10+ years to retirement and your company decides to terminate their pension plan, it may make sense to rollover your balance in the pension plan into an IRA or your current employer’s 401(k) plan. Primarily because you have the benefit of time on your side and you have full control over the asset allocation of the account.

Pension plans typically maintain a conservative to moderate growth investment object. You will rarely ever find a pension plan that has 80%+ in equity exposure. Why? It’s a pooled account for all of the employees of all ages. Since the assets are required to meet current pension payments, pension plans cannot be subject to high levels of volatility.

If your personal balance in the pension plan is moved into our own IRA, you have the option of selecting an investment objective that matches your personal time horizon to retirement. If you have a long time horizon to retirement, it allows you the freedom to be more aggressive with the investment allocation of the account.

If you are within 5 years to retirement, it does not necessarily mean that selecting the monthly pension payment is the right choice but the decision is less cut and dry. You really have to compare the monthly pension payment versus the return that you would have to achieve in your IRA to replicate that income stream in retirement.

Your Health

Your health is a big factor as well. If you are in poor health, it may favor electing the lump sum option and rolling over the balance into an IRA. Whatever amount is left in your IRA account will be distributed to your beneficiaries. With a straight life pension option, the benefit just stops when you pass away. However, if you are worried about your spouse's spending habits and your spouse is either in good health or is much younger than you, you may want to consider the pension option with a 100% survivor benefit.

Flexibility

While some retirees like the security of a monthly pension payment that will not change for the rest of their life, other retirees prefer to have more flexibility. If you rollover you balance to an IRA, you can decide how much you want to take or not take out of the account in a given year.

Some retirees prefer to spend more in their early years in retirement because that is when their health is the best. Walking around Europe when you are 65 is usually not the same experience as walking around Europe when you are 80. If you want to take $10,000 out of your IRA to take that big trip to Europe or to spend a few months in Florida, it provides you with the flexibility to do so. By making sure that you have sufficient funds in your savings at the time of retirement can help to make things like this possible.

Working Because I Want To

The other category of retirees that tend to favor the IRA rollover option is the "I'm working because I want to" category. It has becoming more common for individuals to retire from their primary career and want to still work doing something else for two or three days a week just to keep their mind fresh. If the income from your part-time employment and your social security are enough to meet your expenses, having a fixed pension payment may just create more taxable income for you when you don't necessarily need it. Rolling over your pension plan to an IRA allows you to defer the receipt of that income until at least age 70½. That is the age that distributions are required from IRA accounts.

Monthly Pension vs Lump Sum

It’s important to determine the rate of return that you would need to achieve in your IRA account to replicate the pension benefit based on your life expectancy. With the monthly pension payment option, you do not have to worry about market fluctuations because the onus is on the plan sponsor to produce the returns necessary to make the pension payments. With the IRA, you or your investment advisor are responsible for producing the investment return in the account.

Example 1: You are 65 and you have the option of either taking a monthly pension payment of $3,000 per month or taking a lump sum in the amount of $500,000. If your life expectancy is age 85, what is the rate of return that you would need to achieve in your IRA to replicate the pension payment?

The answer: 4%

If your IRA account performs better than 4% per year, you are ahead of the game. If your IRA produces a return below 4%, you run the risk of running out of money prior to reaching age 85.

Part of this analysis is to determining whether or not the rate of return threshold is a reasonable rate of return to replicate. If the required rate of return calculation results in a return of 6% or higher, outside of any special circumstances, you may be inclined to select the pension payments and put the responsibility of producing that 6% rate of return each year on the plan sponsor.

Low Interest Rate Environment

A low interest rate environment tends to favor the lump sum option because it lowers the “discount rate” that actuaries can use when they are running the present value calculation. Wait……what?

The actuaries are the mathletes that produce the numbers that you see on your pension statement. They have to determine how much they would have to hand you today in a lump sum payment to equal the amount that you would have received if you elected the monthly pension option.

This is called a “present value” calculation. This amount is not the exact amount that you would have received if you elected the monthly pension payments because they get to assume that they money in the pension plan will earn interest over your life expectancy. For example, if the pension plan is supposed to pay you $10,000 per year for the next 30 years, that would equal $300,000 paid out over that 30 year period. But the present value may only be $140,000 because they get to assume that you will earn interest off of that money over the next 30 years for the amount that is not distributed until a later date.

In lower interest rate environments, the actuaries have to use a lower assume rate of return or a lower “discount rate”. Since they have to assume that you will make less interest on the money in your IRA, they have to provide you with a larger lump sum payment to replicate the monthly pension payments over your life expectancy.

Inflation

Inflation can be one of the largest enemies to a monthly pension payment. Inflation, in its simplest form is “the price of everything that you buy today goes up in price over time”. It’s why your grandparents have told you that they remember when a gallon of milk cost a nickel. If you are 65 today and your lock into receiving $2,000 per month for the rest of your life, inflation will erode the spending power of that $2,000 over time.

Historically, inflation increases by about 3% per year. As an example, if your monthly car payment is $400 today, the payment for that same exact car 20 years from now will be $722 per month. Now use this multiplier against everything that you buy each month and it begins to add up quickly.

If you have the money in an IRA, higher inflation typically leads to higher interest rate, which can lead to higher interest rates on bonds. Again, having control over the investment allocation of your IRA account may help you to mitigate the negative impact of inflation compared to a fixed pension payment.

A special note, some pension plans have a cost of living adjustment (“COLA”) built into the pension payment. Having this feature available in your pension plan will help to manage the inflation risk associated with selecting the monthly pension payment option. The plan basically has an inflation measuring stick built into your pension payment. If inflation increases, the plan is allowed to increase the amount of your monthly pension payment to help protect the benefit.

Your Overall Financial Picture

While I have highlighted a number of key variables that you will need to consider before selecting the payout option for your pension benefit, at the end of the day, you have to determine how each option factors into your own personal financial situation. It’s usually wise to run financial projections that identify both the opportunities and risks associated with each payment option.

Don’t be afraid to seek professional help with this decision. They will help you consider what you might need to pay for in the future.  Are you going to need money spare for holidays, transportation, even funeral costs should be considered. Where people get into trouble is when they guess or they choose an option based on what most of their co-workers selected. Remember, those co-workers are not going to be there to help you financially if you make the wrong decision.

As an investment advisor, I will also say this, if you meet with a financial planner or investment advisor to assist you with this decision, make sure they are providing you with a non-bias analysis of your options. Depending on how they are compensation, they may have a vested interest in getting you to rollover you pension benefit to an IRA. Even though electing the lump sum payment and rolling the balance over to an IRA may very well be the right decision, they should walk you through a thorough analysis of the month pension payments versus the lump sum rollover option to assist you with your decision.

Michael Ruger

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

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Moving Expenses Are No Longer Deductible

If you were planning on moving this year to take a new position with a new company or even a new position within your current employer, the moving process just got a little more expensive. Not only is it expensive, but it can put you under an intense amount of stress as there will be lots of things that you need to have in place before packing up and

If you were planning on moving this year to take a new position with a new company or even a new position within your current employer, the moving process just got a little more expensive. Not only is it expensive, but it can put you under an intense amount of stress as there will be lots of things that you need to have in place before packing up and moving. Even things like how you are going to transport your car over to your new home, can take up a lot of your time, and on top of that, you have to think about how much it's going to cost. Prior to the tax law changes that took effect January 1, 2018, companies would often offer new employees a "relocation package" or "moving expense reimbursements" to help subsidize the cost of making the move. From a tax standpoint, it was great benefit because those reimbursements were not taxable to the employee. Unfortunately that tax benefit has disappeared in 2018 as a result of tax reform.

Taxable To The Employee

Starting in 2018, moving expense reimbursements paid to employee will now represent taxable income. Due to the change in the tax treatment, employees may need to negotiate a higher expense reimbursement rate knowing that any amount paid to them from the company will represent taxable income.

For example, let’s say you plan to move from New York to California and you estimate that your moving expense will be around $5,000. In 2017, your new employer would have had to pay you $5,000 to fully reimburse you for the moving expense. In 2018, assuming you are in the 35% tax bracket, that same employer would need to provide you with $6,750 to fully reimburse you for your moving expenses because you are going to have to pay income tax on the reimbursement amount.

Increased Expense To The Employer

For companies that attract new talent from all over the United States, this will be an added expense for them in 2018. Many companies limit full moving expense reimbursement to executives. Coincidentally, employees at the executive level are usually that highest paid. Higher pay equals higher tax brackets. If you total up the company's moving expense reimbursements paid to key employees in 2017 and then add another 40% to that number to compensate your employees for the tax hit, it could be a good size number.

Eliminated From Miscellaneous Deductions

As an employee, if your employer did not reimburse you for your moving expenses and you had to move at least 50 miles to obtain that position, prior to 2018, you were allowed to deduct those expenses when you filed your taxes and you were not required to itemize to capture the deduction. However, this expense will no longer be deductible even for employees that are not reimbursed by their employer for the move starting in 2018.

Michael Ruger

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

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Spouse Inherited IRA Options

If your spouse passes away and they had either an IRA, 401(k), 403(b), or some other type of employer sponsored retirement account, you will have to determine which distribution option is the right one for you. There are deadlines that you will need to be aware of, different tax implications based on the option that you choose, forms that need to be

If your spouse passes away and they had either an IRA, 401(k), 403(b), or some other type of employer sponsored retirement account, you will have to determine which distribution option is the right one for you.   There are deadlines that you will need to be aware of, different tax implications based on the option that you choose, forms that need to be completed, and accounts that may need to be established. 

Spouse Distribution Options

As the spouse, if you are listed as primary beneficiary on a retirement account or IRA, you have more options available to you than a non-spouse beneficiary.  Non-spouse beneficiaries that inherited retirement accounts after December 31, 2019 are required to fully distribution the account 10 years following the year that the decedent passed away. But as the spouse of the decedent, you have the following options: 

  • Fulling distribute the retirement account with 10 years

  • Rollover the balance to an inherited IRA

  • Rollover the balance to your own IRA

To determine which option is the right choice, you will need to take the following factors into consideration: 

  • Your age

  • The age of your spouse

  • Will you need to take money from the IRA to supplement your income?

  • Taxes

Cash Distributions

We will start with the most basic option which is to take a cash distribution directly from your spouse’s retirement account.    Be very careful with this option.  When you take a cash distribution from a pre-tax retirement account, you will have to pay income tax on the amount that is distributed to you.  For example, if your spouse had $50,000 in a 401(k), and you decide to take the full amount out in the form of a lump sum distribution, the full $50,000 will be counted as taxable income to you in the year that the distribution takes place. It’s like receiving a paycheck from your employer for $50,000 with no taxes taken out.   When you go to file your taxes the following year, a big tax bill will probably be waiting for you.

 

In most cases, if you need some or all of the cash from a 401(k) account or an IRA, it usually makes more sense to first rollover the entire balance into an inherited IRA, and then take the cash that you need from there.   This strategy gives you more control over the timing of the distributions which may help you to save some money in taxes.  If as the spouse, you need the $50,000, but you really need $30,000 now and $20,000 in 6 months, you can rollover the full $50,000 balance to the inherited IRA, take $30,000 from the IRA this year, and take the additional $20,000 on January 2nd the following year so it spreads the tax liability between two tax years.

10% Early Withdrawal Penalty

Typically, if you are under the age of 59½, and you take a distribution from a retirement account, you incur not only taxes but also a 10% early withdrawal penalty on the amount this is distributed from the account.  This is not the case when you take a cash distribution, as a beneficiary, directly from the decedents retirement account.  You have to report the distribution as taxable income but you do not incur the 10% early withdrawal penalty, regardless of your age. 

IRA Options

Let's move onto the two IRA options that are available to spouse beneficiaries.  The spouse has the decide whether to: 

  • Rollover the balance into their own IRA

  • Rollover the balance into an inherited IRA

By processing a direct rollover to an IRA in either case, the beneficiary is able to avoid immediate taxation on the balance in the account.  However, it’s very important to understand the difference between these two options because all too often this is where the surviving spouse makes the wrong decision.  In most cases, once this decision is made, it cannot be reversed. 

Spouse IRA vs Inherited IRA

There are some big differences comparing the spouse IRA and inherited IRA option.

There is common misunderstanding of the RMD rules when it comes to inherited IRA’s.  The spouse often assumes that if they select the inherited IRA option, they will be forced to take a required minimum distribution from the account just like non-spouse beneficiaries had to under the old inherited IRA rules prior to the passing of the SECURE Act in 2019. That is not necessarily true.  When the spouses establishes an inherited IRA, a RMD is only required when the deceases spouse would have reached age 70½.  This determination is based on the age that your spouse would have been if they were still alive.  If they are under that “would be” age, the surviving spouse is not required to take an RMD from the inherited IRA for that tax year.

For example, if you are 39 and your spouse passed away last year at the age of 41, if you establish an inherited IRA, you would not be required to take an RMD from your inherited IRA for 29 years which is when your spouse would have turned age 70½.   In the next section, I will explain why this matters.

Surviving Spouse Under The Age of 59½

As the surviving spouse, if you are under that age of 59½, the decision between either establishing an inherited IRA or rolling over the balance into your own IRA is extremely important.  Here’s why .

If you rollover the balance to your own IRA and you need to take a distribution from that account prior to reaching age 59½, you will incur both taxes and the 10% early withdrawal penalty on the amount of the distribution.

But wait…….I thought you said the 10% early withdrawal penalty does not apply?

The 10% early withdrawal penalty does not apply for distributions from an “inherited IRA” or for distributions to a beneficiary directly from the decedents retirement account.  However, since you moved the balance into your own IRA,  you have essentially forfeited the ability to avoid the 10% early withdrawal penalty for distributions taken before age 59½.

The Switch Strategy

There is also a little know “switch strategy” for the surviving spouse.  Even if you initially elect to rollover the balance to an inherited IRA to maintain the ability to take penalty free withdrawals prior to age 59½, at any time, you can elect to rollover that inherited IRA balance into your own IRA.

Why would you do this?  If there is a big age gap between you and your spouse, you may decide to transition your inherited IRA to your own IRA prior to age 59½.  Example, let’s assume the age gap between you and your spouse was 15 years.  In the year that you turn age 55, your spouse would have turned age 70½.  If the balance remains in the inherited IRA, as the spouse, you would have to take an RMD for that tax year.   If you do not need the additional income, you can choose to rollover the balance from your inherited IRA to your own IRA and you will avoid the RMD requirement.   However, in doing so, you also lose the ability to take withdrawals from the IRA without the 10% early withdrawal penalty between ages 55 to 59½.  Based on your financial situation, you will have to determine whether or not the “switch strategy” makes sense for you.

The Spousal IRA

So when does it make sense to rollover your spouse’s IRA or retirement account into your own IRA?  There are two scenarios where this may be the right solution:

  • The surviving spouse is already age 59½ or older

  • The surviving spouse is under the age of 59½ but they know with 100% certainty that they will not have to access the IRA assets prior to reaching age 59½

If the surviving spouse is already 59½ or older, they do not have to worry about the 10% early withdrawal penalty.

For the second scenarios, even though this may be a valid reason, it begs the question:  “If you are under the age of 59½ and you have the option of changing the inherited IRA to your own IRA at any time, why take the risk?”

As the spouse you can switch from inherited IRA to your own IRA but you are not allowed to switch from your own IRA to an inherited IRA down the road.

Michael Ruger

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

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Warning To All Employees: Review The Tax Withholding In Your Paycheck Otherwise A Big Tax Bill May Be Waiting For You

As a result of tax reform, the IRS released the new income tax withholding tables in January and your employer probably entered those new withholding amounts into the payroll system in February. It was estimated that about 90% of taxpayers would see an increase in their take home pay once the new withholding tables were implemented.

As a result of tax reform, the IRS released the new income tax withholding tables in January and your employer probably entered those new withholding amounts into the payroll system in February.  It was estimated that about 90% of taxpayers would see an increase in their take home pay once the new withholding tables were implemented. While lower tax rates and more money in your paycheck sounds like a good thing, it may come back to bite you when you file your taxes.

The Tax Withholding Guessing Game

Knowing the correct amount to withhold for federal and state income taxes from your paycheck is a bit of a guessing game. Withhold too little throughout the year and when you file your taxes you have a tax bill waiting for you equal to the amount of the shortfall. Withhold too much and you will receive a big tax refund but that also means you gave the government an interest free loan for the year.

There are two items that tell your employer how much to withhold for federal income tax from your paycheck:

  • Income Tax Withholding Tables

  • Form W-4

The IRS provides your employer with the Income Tax Withholding Tables. On the other hand, you as the employee, complete the Form W-4 which tells your employer how much to withhold for taxes based on the “number of allowances” that you claim on the form.

What Is A W-4 Form?

The W-4 form is one of the many forms that HR had you complete when you were first hired by the company. Here is what it looks like:

Section 3 of this form tells your employer which withholding table to use:

  • Single

  • Married

  • Married, but withhold at higher Single Rate

Section 5 tells your employer how many "allowances" you are claiming. Allowance is just another word for "dependents". The more allowances your claim, the lower the tax withholding in your paycheck because it assumes that you will have less "taxable income" because in the past you received a deduction for each dependent. This is where the main problem lies. Due to the changes in the tax laws, the tax deduction for personal exemptions was eliminated. This may adversely affect some taxpayers the were claiming a high number of allowances on their W-4 form because even though the number of their dependents did not change, their taxable income may be higher in 2018 because the deduction for personal exemptions no longer exists.

Even though everyone should review their Form W-4 form this year, employees that claimed allowances on their W-4 form are at the highest risk of either under withholding or over withholding taxes from their paychecks in 2018 due to the changes in the tax laws.

How Much Should I Withhold From My Paycheck For Taxes?

So how do you go about calculating that right amount to withhold from your paycheck for taxes to avoid an unfortunate tax surprise when you file your taxes for 2018? There are two methods:

  • Ask your accountant

  • Use the online IRS Withholding Calculator

The easiest and most accurate method is to ask your personal accountant when you meet with them to complete your 2017 tax return. Bring them your most recent pay stub and a blank Form W-4. Based on the changes in the tax laws, they can assist you in the proper completion of your W-4 Form based on your estimated tax liability for the year.If you complete your own taxes, I would highly recommend visiting the updated IRS Withholding Calculator. The IRS calculator will ask you a series of questions, such as:

  • How many dependents you plan to claim in 2018

  • Are you over the age of 65

  • The number of children that qualify for the dependent care credit

  • The number of children that will qualify for the new child tax credit

  • Estimated gross wages

  • How much fed income tax has already been withheld year to date

  • Payroll frequency

At the end of the process it will provide you with your personal results based on the data that you entered. It will provide you with guidance as to how to complete your Form W-4 including the number of allowances to claim and if applicable, the additional amount that you should instruct your employer to withhold from your paycheck for federal income taxes. Additional withholding requests are listed in Section 6 of the Form W-4.

Avoid Disaster

Having this conversation with your accountant and/or using the new IRS Withholding Calculator will help you to avoid a big tax disaster in 2018. Unfortunately, many employees may not learn about this until it's too late. Employees that are used to getting a tax refund may find out in the spring of next year that they owe thousands of dollars to the IRS because the combination of the new tax tables and the changes in the tax law that caused them to inadvertently under withhold federal income taxes throughout the year.

Action Item!!

Take action now. The longer you wait to run this calculation or to have this conversation with your accountant, the larger the adjustment may be to your paycheck. It's easier to make these adjustments now when you have nine months left in the year as opposed to waiting until November.I would strongly recommend that you share this article with your spouse, children in the work force, and co-workers to help them avoid this little known problem. The media will probably not catch wind of this issue until employees start filing their tax returns for 2018 and they find out that there is a tax bill waiting for them.

Michael Ruger

About Michael.........

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.

Read More

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