The Social Security Administration recently announced that the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2025 will only be a 2.5% increase. This is significantly lower than the COLA increases in the past few years, which included a 3.2% increase in 2024 and a notable 8.7% increase in 2023. According to the Social Security Administration, the 2.5% increase in 2025 will result in an average $50 per month increase for Social Security recipients.

Immediately after the announcement, many retirees expressed concerns that a modest 2.5% increase is not sufficient to keep pace with the rising costs they face for groceries, insurance, rent, and other everyday expenses.

Medicare Premiums May Increase by More Than 2.5%

While the Medicare Part B and Part D premium amounts for 2025 have yet to be released, consensus expects increases greater than 3% for both Part B and Part D. If this holds true, retirees may gain an average of $50 per month from the COLA increase in their Social Security benefits, but a substantial portion of that could be offset by higher Medicare premiums, which are deducted directly from their monthly Social Security payments.

In 2024, the COLA increase for Social Security was 3.2%, but Medicare Part B premiums rose by 5.9%, leaving many retirees already behind in keeping up with inflation. We could potentially see a similar situation in 2025.

COLA Calculation Controversy

In recent years, there has been growing controversy over how the Social Security Administration calculates the annual cost-of-living adjustment for benefits. While the COLA is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the prices of various goods and services within the U.S. economy, questions have arisen about whether the specific goods and services included in the CPI basket are still a good reflection of overall price increases across the economy.

Many consumers would agree that it feels like prices increased by more than 3.2% in 2024. If the Federal Reserve successfully delivers a soft landing, avoids a recession, and the economy starts growing at a faster pace, what are the chances that prices will rise by more than 2.5% in 2025? I'd say the chances are high.

Retirees Are in a Tough Spot

Many retirees live on fixed incomes, and Social Security benefits often represent a large portion of their total yearly income. If the COLA increases for Social Security do not adequately keep pace with rising costs, retirees may be forced to either reduce their spending or consider re-entering the workforce on a part-time basis to generate more income to meet their expenses.

About Michael……...

Hi, I’m Michael Ruger. I’m the managing partner of Greenbush Financial Group and the creator of the nationally recognized Money Smart Board blog . I created the blog because there are a lot of events in life that require important financial decisions. The goal is to help our readers avoid big financial missteps, discover financial solutions that they were not aware of, and to optimize their financial future.